This year’s OHE lecture addresses the question: how should the world pay for a COVID-19 vaccine? Adrian Towse, Emeritus Director of OHE and Senior Research Fellow presents the challenges that we face in developing a COVID-19 vaccine,and suggests a mechanism for buying the vaccine on a global scale. This draft paper was published alongside the lecture but contains additional analysis, extensive footnotes and references. Comments and feedback are welcome.
Shah, K.K., Ramos-Goñi, J.M., Kreimeier, S. and Devlin, N.J.
To date there have been no value sets to support the use of the EQ-5D-Y in cost-utility analysis. Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) can be used to obtain values on a latent scale, but these values require anchoring at 0 = dead to meet the conventions of quality-adjusted life year (QALY) estimation. This Research Paper describes a study in which four stated preference methods for anchoring EQ-5D-Y values were compared: visual analogue scale, DCE (with a duration attribute), lag-time TTO and the recently developed ‘location-of-dead’ (LOD) element of the personal utility function approach.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing public health threat, limiting the ability of health care systems to prevent and treat infections and save lives. In parallel, global antibiotic development pipelines are weak. Various R&D incentives have been proposed to address the challenges associated to low economic returns from investment in antibiotics. Value assessment methods recognising the value of new antibiotics to the whole health system are needed to help match the size of the required monetary incentives to the value that they offer.
Berdud, M., Wallin-Bernhardsson, N., Zamora, B., Lindgren, P., and Towse, A.
The present work aims to assess the life-cycle value of innovative medicines based on the example of Second-Generation Antipsychotics (SGA). Assessing the entire life-cycle of SGA, the study explores how much additional value has been delivered through additional approved indications for SGAs, generic competition or new and clinically superior formulations launched. Using risperidone as representative of the SGA class and comparing it to haloperidol – its counterpart from the First-Generation Antipsychotics (FGA) – this research estimates the life-cycle cost-effectiveness of the SGA class against FGA class in incremental terms. It also estimates the absolute social value added, measured by the sum of the consumer and producer surpluses. Study results aim to quantify the nature of value added by pharmaceutical innovation over the long-run to support consideration as to how access decisions can be informed by these life cycle effects.
Mott, D.J., Shah, K.K., Ramos-Goñi, J.M., Devlin, N.J. and Rivero-Arias, O.
This Research Paper describes a study examining adolescent and adult responses to a discrete choice experiment (DCE) containing EQ-5D-Y health states in order to determine whether the two groups exhibit different preferences.
The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the issues that might limit comparability of PRO data and to highlight some of the evidence that exists on these issues. We note some of the implications for the development and use of PRO instruments, for their application in multi-country clinical trials, and for employing evidence from them in regulatory and reimbursement decisions. Although much progress has been made in this area, there is still scope for further research and improvement. Numerous factors can affect the comparability of PRO data across (and potentially within) countries and cultures. Failure to recognise and account for these differences could lead to incorrect conclusions about the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of new medicines and other health care interventions. We suggest areas where further research and enhanced guidelines for users of PRO instruments and data would be useful.
The WHO Technical Report: Pricing of cancer medicines and its impacts (“the Report”) was published in order to address requests made in a resolution adopted by the 2018 Seventieth World Health Assembly WHA70.12 on Cancer prevention and control in the context of an integrated approach.
Berdud, M., Chalkidou, K., Dean, E., Ferraro, J., Garrison, L., Nemzoff, C. and Towse, A.
This OHE Research Paper focuses on the role that price transparency may play in the efficient and effective procurement of medicines by Middle and Low Income Countries. Will making prices publicly available make procurement more efficient and cost-effective medicines more accessible?
Hernandez-Villafuerte, K., Zamora, B., Feng, Y., Parkin, D., Devlin, N. and Towse, A.
Estimating a cost-effectiveness threshold reflecting the opportunity cost of adopting a new technology in a health system is not easy. This OHE research paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between health outcomes and health expenditures in England. Results suggest that setting a cost-effectiveness criterion for NICE may not be capable of being synthesised using scientific methods alone, but involve political judgements.
Cole, A., Towse, A., Segal, C.S., Henshall, C. and Pearson, S.D.
OHE Research Paper 19/02: The combination of rising drug costs in the US and increasing financial stress for individual patients has triggered intense national concern. One target has come under particular scrutiny: rebates. This paper describes how alternatives to the current US rebate system offer potential risks or disadvantages as well as potential benefits. It outlines the evidence presented to date, and the key questions that still need to be answered.