Estimation of Future Cases of Dementia from Those Born in 2015

The estimates of future cases of dementia are a result of work commissioned by Alzheimer’s Research UK. The estimates were based on three components:…

The estimates of future cases of dementia are a result of work commissioned by Alzheimer’s Research UK. The estimates were based on three components:

• estimates of how many people born in 2015 will survive to a given age;
• age and sex specific estimates of the incidence of dementia;
• an epidemiological model capable of measuring the flow of people between non-dementia and dementia, while mimicking overall population dynamics consistent with survival data.

Data was collected from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Cognitive Function & Ageing Study (CFAS I), and an epidemiological model was built.

The model calculated that:

• 27% of males born in 2015 in the UK will develop dementia;
• 37% of females born in 2015 in the UK will develop dementia;
• 32% of people born in 2015 in the UK will develop dementia.