Computer modelling and AI have the potential to deliver safer, more effective medicines and medical devices globally. If the UK can realise its share of the benefits, it could mean billions of pounds in health gains and savings according to a new economic assessment.
Computer modelling and AI have the potential to deliver safer, more effective medicines and medical devices globally. If the UK can realise its share of the benefits, it could mean billions of pounds in health gains and savings according to a new economic assessment.
An Office of Health Economics report, published today, estimates that a fully funded UK Centre of Excellence for In-Silico Regulatory Science and Innovation (UK CEiRSI) could generate 37,282 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) within its first five years. A QALY is a measure that combines length and quality of life, representing a year lived in perfect health. The report values that health gain at around £2.4 billion, applying the Treasury’s £70,000 valuation of a QALY and discounting future benefits.
Headquartered at The University of Manchester, UK CEiRSI’s mission is to accelerate the use of in silico methods, which use computer modelling and simulations alongside, or in place of, laboratory experiments or tests involving animals or people, as a key evidence base for developing and regulating medicines and medical devices. UK CEiRSI is supported by the Office of Life Sciences, Innovate UK, the Medical Research Council, and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.
The analysis also estimates potential savings within the next five years of £1.2 billion for the NHS and £325 million globally for industry through research and development efficiencies and additional revenue. It projects a £21.9 billion contribution to the UK economy through investment, employment, and productivity gains. The authors caution that some of these quantified health and productivity benefits may overlap.
The report suggests that in silico methods could also reduce reliance on animal testing and improve access to treatments for groups often under-represented in clinical trials, including children and pregnant women.
UK CEiRSI’s work is referenced in the Government’s Replacing Animals in Science Strategy and aligns with their Life Sciences Sector Plan, AI for Science Strategy, and the 10-Year Health Plan for England.
To estimate the impact, researchers modelled how UK CEiRSI could enable 14 additional uses of medicines and medical devices by 2030, comprising two medicines and 12 devices. Over 15 years, that figure could rise to 77 new uses. The resulting health gains were valued at £14 billion. Separately, the report links £12.5 billion of new research and development investment to the creation of 267,000 jobs by 2040.
The analysis drew on published evidence and a survey of 46 experts from the medical device, pharmaceutical, and supporting sectors, with the headline figures based on OHE’s medium impact scenario.
Professor Alejandro Frangi, Executive Director of UK CEiRSI at The University of Manchester, said: “In silico technologies let us test ideas, treatments and devices using sophisticated computer models before, or alongside, conventional studies. UK CEiRSI is unlocking the potential of these methods and this report shows how the country stands to gain. More years of healthy life is a tantalising prospect and one that is now within our grasp. The economic benefits that we can offer will create and protect British jobs. We are helping to reduce animal testing in research by advancing the use of human-relevant evidence. We look forward to delivering this transformational agenda alongside the government, medical regulators, and businesses.”
Professor Sarah Sharples, Vice-President and Dean of the Faculty of Science and Engineering at The University of Manchester, said: “Computer modelling is an extremely beneficial component of delivering safe and effective technology. The report sets out an opportunity that the UK is well placed to take. The rules by which computer-based evidence is accepted in medicine and medical device regulation are being written now, and the countries that help write those rules will shape how these products are developed well beyond their own borders.
”UK CEiRSI, headquartered here and drawing on partners across the UK and beyond, demonstrates how a Manchester strategic approach brings this approach to life. It takes modelling, computing at scale, and validation to a standard that holds up under scrutiny — and people who can do all three. Manchester has this.”
Professor Ashley Blom, Vice-President and Dean of the Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health at The University of Manchester, said: “Every medicine and device that reaches a patient has been tested on somebody, and for decades that somebody has rarely been a child, rarely someone who is pregnant, and rarely someone from the communities our trials reach least well. Simulation changes who can be represented in the evidence, which makes this a matter of safety and of fairness at once. The report highlights these benefits and the potential for improved patient safety and enhanced product efficacy more generally.”
- To mark the launch of this landmark research, UK CEiRSI will host an exclusive presentation webinar to deep dive into the data, methodology, and future of in-silico regulatory science in the UK life sciences sector, called: Unlocking £21.9B in Economic Growth & £1.2B in NHS Savings: The Value of UK CEiRSI. It will take place on Nov 18 from 13:00- 14:00 bst. Email alejandro.frangi@manchester.ac.uk for more details
Notes to editors
The full report, The economic and health impact of UK CEiRSI: the UK Centre of Excellence for In-Silico Regulatory Science and Innovation, Office of Health Economics, September 2026, is available at: https://www.ohe.org/publications/the-economic-and-health-impact-of-uk-ceirsi-the-uk-centre-of-excellence-for-in-silico-regulatory-science-and-innovation
UK CEiRSI is a pioneering consortium, headquartered at the University of Manchester, uniting leading UK research intensive universities with key regulatory bodies including the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the Health Research Authority (HRA).
A further 85 national and international organisations from academia, industry, and regulation are taking part. UK CEiRSI’s aim is to build robust in silico evidence into how medical products are developed, assessed, approved, adopted and monitored. For more information visit www.uk-ceirsi.org
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