A newly released report commissioned by Moderna modelled a one-year scenario without annual COVID-19 autumn vaccinations.
- A newly released report commissioned by Moderna modelled a one-year scenario without annual COVID-19 autumn vaccinations. The analysis shows that COVID-19 could still impose an estimated annual burden of £7 billion in the UK.
- The model finds the cost of COVID-19 is borne largely by the national economy, with the cost without further autumn vaccinations estimated to be £6.2 billion, while the cost to the NHS is estimated as £0.8 billion.
- An estimated £5.5 billion — or 89% — of the cost to the national economy is attributed to cases in working age adults, with productivity losses due to non-severe cases of COVID-19 driving this economic impact.
- Autumn vaccination in the UK for those aged 65+ and in high-risk groups is estimated to save £838 million, averting 12% of the total £7 billion economic burden.
- Evaluating economic benefits demonstrates the additional value to society of broadening vaccine eligibility. Under modelled scenarios, extending eligibility to those in the general population aged 50+ and 18+ are estimated to be associated with savings of up to £1.1 billion and up to £1.8 billion per year, respectively.
Although COVID-19 is no longer considered a global health emergency, it continues to impact the NHS and the national economy. However, the ongoing economic impact of this disease is not well understood, and this report aims to evaluate the potential wider socio-economic impact in the UK.
Earlier this year, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) recommended that the age-based eligibility criteria for England’s 2025 autumn vaccination schedule be brought up to ages 75+, from 65+ in the previous years.
OHE’s report, commissioned by Moderna, published today, quantifies the total economic burden of COVID-19 over a one-year time horizon across four high income countries – the UK, the Netherlands, Japan and Australia. The research concludes that without an autumn COVID-19 vaccination programme, the UK could face a total estimated economic burden of £7 billion per year. Of this total burden, £6.2 billion falls on the national economy, and £0.8 billion on the NHS.
The research also reveals that most of the ongoing impact of COVID-19 borne by the national economy is driven by productivity losses from non-severe cases of COVID-19.
In addition, 89% of the impact of COVID-19 on the national economy is attributed to working age adults (18-64), a driver often overlooked in current decision-making.
The model indicates that, in addition to hospitalisations and deaths, non-hospitalised symptomatic cases may also contribute substantially to lost productivity – 24 million workdays lost due to non-fatal illness and 130,000 future work-years lost due to premature deaths. As with all estimates from this model, these estimates are derived by extrapolating from infection outcomes, rather than directly measured data, and should be interpreted with caution.
This scenario without annual autumn vaccinations was associated with considerable burden on the NHS:
- COVID-19 would account for approximately 1.2 million hospital bed-days and over 3 million outpatient care appointments.
- More than half of this burden stems from acute, severe COVID-19 cases which require hospitalisation and subsequent outpatient appointments.
- Although older adults are at greater individual risk of severe outcomes, the overall burden on the healthcare system is almost equally driven by both working-age adults and older adults (45% and 50% respectively).
The analysis suggests that annual autumn COVID-19 vaccination can be associated with reductions in healthcare use and broader social impacts, including fewer fatalities and productivity losses.
Annual autumn vaccination of people aged 65+ and those in high-risk groups (in line with 2023 JCVI recommendations) is estimated to prevent thousands of hospitalisations, deaths and reduce pressure on the NHS. The model translates these health benefits into economic savings of approximately £838 million a year, or 12% of the total annual economic burden.
Based on historic immunisation data, including age-adjusted uptake rates, the report found that extensions to those in the general population aged 50+ and 18+ would increase the total savings to up to £1.1 billion and £1.8 billion per year, respectively.
Further evaluation of COVID vaccinations and their impact on wider economy and society is warranted to facilitate future policy making.
Sian Hodgson, co-author of the report and Senior Economist at the Office of Health Economics said:
“Our analysis indicates that COVID-19 vaccination programmes are associated with a wide spectrum of socioeconomic benefits. Conditional to the model’s assumptions, we estimate that expanding eligibility to working-age adults could offset aggregate costs by up to £1.8 billion a year.”
Investing in COVID-19 vaccines isn’t just about health; there are also associated economic benefits. Vaccines generate huge amounts of direct and indirect value. They help ease the burden on the NHS, and they protect the national economy by averting productivity losses and keeping the workforce healthy and in work.”
Notes to Editors
Please reference the report as: El-Banhawi H., Hodgson S., Neri M., Steuten L. 2025. Insights for Healthcare Resilience and Economic Performance: The Broader Economic Benefits of Covid-19 Vaccination. OHE Contract Research Report, London: Office of Health Economics. Available at: https://www.ohe.org/publications/the-broader-economic-benefits-of-covid-19-vaccination/.
The report was commissioned and funded by Moderna. OHE conducted the analysis and drafted the report.
Cost of illness analyses evaluate the economic impact associated with the morbidity and mortality of a disease from a societal perspective. All models in this report account for prior COVID-19 vaccination history and have a one-year time horizon. The analyses consider working-age adults (18+) and older adults (≥65).
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