Uncertainty and Risk in HTA Decision Making

Barnsley, P., Cubi-Molla, P., Fischer, A., and Towse, A.

Research Paper
November 2016

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The quality of decision-making in key public sector bodies dealing with resource allocation is a major determinant of their efficiency. One of the most difficult and contentious areas of decision-making is the way that uncertainty is dealt with. This report is concerned with uncertainty as it affects the cost effectiveness aspects of health technology assessment (HTA). It includes a review of the policy documents governing cost benefit analysis and cost effectiveness analysis in respect of HTA in England and Wales, and the results of interviews with former decision makers at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE).