A COVID-19 vaccine is needed now, but timelines (12-18 months) create large market risk. By the time a vaccine is ready, the crisis may have passed. A CGD Note explores three options: business as usual – which may lead to promotion of an inferior vaccine or fierce country competition for supply – and two models (cost- or value-based), with countries pre-committing to purchases meeting specified efficacy. The authors prefer a value-based model.

This presentation to the Australian Society for Antimicrobials (ASA) meeting in Melbourne, on 27th February 2020 draws on OHE research, funded by the Wellcome Trust, on adapting HTA methods and contracting for new antibiotics. It analyses UK (NICE and NHSE) plans to introduce a subscription model (delinking use of new antibiotics from payments for making the products available) and suggests that Australia could also pilot such an approach.

The Office of Health Economics ( wishes to recruit a number of well-qualified, highly motivated and energetic junior economists, with particular strengths in health economics, including the economics of health technology assessment, health care systems and/or the life sciences industry.

Adrian Towse presented evidence that transparency of process reduced corruption and improved competition. Evidence was, however, against price transparency for on-patent medicines. It will reduce access in low income countries. In generic markets, price transparency could improve efficiency, although it risks collusion by suppliers. There is therefore a case for buyers sharing, but not publishing, price data for off-patent medicines.

OHE has published a white paper discussing the relative merits and shortfalls of current approaches to defining, estimating, and applying cost-effectiveness thresholds in HTA.

This will be accompanied by a (forthcoming) research paper exploring bargaining in threshold setting