Future UK Medicines Spending: Four Nation Analysis

In July, OHE released projections for medicines spending in the UK NHS for 2012‒2015.  We have now completed further projections, also for the ABPI, for each of the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales).

For this new analysis, we followed these steps:

1. Actual UK 2011 sales of medicines (brands and generics) were divided into primary care and secondary care markets.

2. For each market, we calculated sales for each of the four nations for 2011.

3. To project sales for each nation for 2012-2015, we applied the same growth rate to each of the four nations’ primary care and secondary care markets that was used for the whole of the UK. This means that the growth rates in spending within primary and secondary care are projected to be identical across the four nations and for the UK as a whole.

4. Total sales for each nation (actual sales for 2011 and projected for 2012-2015) were calculated by adding together sales in primary care and sales in secondary care. Growth rates in total sales across the four nations differ slightly, reflecting the variations in market share for the primary and secondary care markets.

Additional information is available on the ABPI website.  

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